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Why 2026 Go Hard Pass 2025 for Nigeria – 5 Things Wey Go Happen & How to Prepare
Welcome to Daily Reality NG, where we break down real-life issues with honesty and clarity. Today, I'm going to share something that's been weighing on my mind for months now, something many Nigerians are quietly worrying about but nobody wants to say out loud: 2026 might be even harder than 2025.
I'm Samson Ese, founder of Daily Reality NG. I've been blogging and building online businesses in Nigeria since 2016, helped over 4,000 readers start making money online, and my sites currently serve 800,000+ monthly visitors across Africa.
The Reality Nobody Wants to Talk About
Last week, I sat down with my neighbor, Uncle Chidi. The man sells phone accessories at Computer Village. We were just gisting under the mango tree in our compound when he said something that shook me: "Samson, if you think 2025 hard, wait till 2026 reach. The thing wey dey come no be here."
Uncle Chidi is not an economist. He's not a politician. But he's been in business for 15 years, and he's seen patterns. When a man like that speaks with that kind of certainty, you have to listen. And truth be told, everything I've been reading, everything I've been observing, everything the data is showing — it's all pointing in the same direction.
Let me be honest with you. I don't like writing articles like this. I prefer to share solutions, opportunities, ways to make money, ways to build a better life. But sometimes, the most helpful thing you can do for someone is tell them the truth so they can prepare. And that's what I'm doing today.
📑 Table of Contents
- 1. Fuel Subsidy Removal Will Fully Hit in 2026
- 2. Naira Devaluation Will Continue (and Worsen)
- 3. Inflation Will Break New Records
- 4. Unemployment and Underemployment Will Rise
- 5. Small Businesses Will Face Existential Threats
- How to Prepare for 2026: 7 Practical Steps
- Key Takeaways
- Frequently Asked Questions
1. Fuel Subsidy Removal Will Fully Hit in 2026
If you think say the fuel subsidy removal wey happened in 2023 don finish to affect us, I get bad news. The full impact never even land yet. What we've been experiencing since 2023 is just the first wave. In 2026, the second wave go come, and e go hit different.
Why 2026 Will Be Different
Right now, the government still dey use some tactics to soften the blow. They're still providing some indirect support, still manipulating some figures, still trying to manage public anger. But by 2026, those buffers will be completely gone. The Central Bank of Nigeria has already indicated that they cannot continue to support the current fuel pricing structure indefinitely.
What does this mean for regular Nigerians? It means that petrol price wey don reach N700 to N800 per liter for many parts of Nigeria fit climb to N1,200 or even N1,500 by mid-2026. And when fuel price rise, everything else follows — transport, food, rent, school fees, everything.
Real Talk: I know someone who runs a small transport business in Benin City. He told me that if fuel hits N1,200 per liter, he'll have to shut down. He can't increase his prices beyond what passengers can afford, and his profit margin is already almost zero. He's not alone. Thousands of small transport operators across Nigeria are in the same boat.
The Ripple Effect Nobody Sees Coming
When transport costs rise, farmers can't afford to bring their produce to market. When farmers can't bring produce to market, food scarcity increases. When food scarcity increases, prices skyrocket. This is not theory — this is the exact cycle we saw between 2023 and 2024, and it's going to intensify in 2026.
Many Nigerians are already struggling to eat three meals a day. According to recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics, over 40 percent of Nigerian households have reduced their food intake in the past year. If fuel prices continue rising in 2026, this percentage will increase significantly.
2. Naira Devaluation Will Continue (and Worsen)
Remember when $1 was N450? Those days feel like ancient history now. As I write this article in November 2025, the official exchange rate is hovering around N1,500 to the dollar, while the black market rate is closer to N1,800 or N2,000 in some areas.
And the painful truth? We haven't seen the bottom yet.
Why the Naira Will Keep Falling in 2026
Nigeria's foreign reserves are not growing fast enough to match our import dependency. We import almost everything — from toothpicks to tomatoes, from textiles to technology. And all these imports are paid for in dollars. As long as we're not producing and exporting enough to earn foreign exchange, the naira will continue to weaken.
The Central Bank has tried several strategies — multiple exchange rate windows, restrictions on forex for certain imports, encouraging diaspora remittances. But these are band-aid solutions on a structural problem. Without a fundamental shift in Nigeria's economic model, the naira will continue its downward trajectory.
Some analysts are projecting that by the end of 2026, we could see N2,500 to $1 on the official market. If that happens, the black market will be trading at N3,000 or higher. Think about what that means for everyday items. That phone charger wey na N3,000 today fit become N6,000. That bag of rice wey na N75,000 today fit reach N120,000.
Personal Note: I have a friend who imports electronics. In 2022, he could bring in a container for $15,000 (about N6.7 million then). Today, that same container costs him over N22 million. By 2026, if the naira keeps falling, he's looking at over N37 million for the same container. Either he stops importing, or he passes those costs to customers. Either way, Nigerians lose.
What This Means for Your Savings
If you have N1 million in your bank account today, that money is losing value every single day the naira weakens. By 2026, that same N1 million might only have the purchasing power of N600,000 or N700,000 in today's terms. This is why many financial advisors are now recommending that Nigerians diversify their savings into dollar-denominated assets or investments that can hedge against inflation.
But here's the problem: not everyone has access to dollars or dollar investments. The average Nigerian earning N150,000 per month doesn't have the luxury of buying dollars and holding them. So what should regular people do? We'll discuss practical strategies later in this article.
3. Inflation Will Break New Records
As of October 2025, Nigeria's inflation rate stood at approximately 28 percent. Let that number sink in for a moment. It means that, on average, things cost 28 percent more than they did one year ago. For context, a bag of rice that was N50,000 in October 2024 should theoretically cost around N64,000 in October 2025 if inflation is factored in.
But here's the thing many people don't realize: official inflation numbers often underestimate what regular Nigerians actually experience. If you buy food, pay rent, pay for transport, pay school fees, your personal inflation rate is probably much higher than 28 percent. Many economists call this "lived inflation" — the real cost increase that people feel in their daily lives.
Why Inflation Will Get Worse in 2026
Inflation is not a random occurrence. It's driven by specific factors, and unfortunately, most of those factors are getting worse, not better. When fuel prices rise, inflation rises. When the naira weakens, inflation rises. When government spending increases without corresponding production increases, inflation rises. And all three of these things are happening simultaneously in Nigeria.
The Central Bank has tried to control inflation by raising interest rates, but this strategy has limited effectiveness in an economy like Nigeria's where most economic activity happens outside the formal banking system. The informal sector — market traders, roadside mechanics, bricklayers, hair salon owners — doesn't respond to interest rate hikes the way formal businesses do.
By mid-2026, some projections suggest Nigeria's inflation rate could reach 35 percent or even 40 percent. If that happens, it would be one of the highest inflation rates in Africa, and the impact on ordinary Nigerians would be catastrophic.
Real Example: My cousin is a primary school teacher. Her salary is N80,000 per month. In 2023, she could manage comfortably. By 2024, she was struggling. Now in late 2025, she's had to move back in with her parents because she can no longer afford her own rent. And her salary hasn't changed. The only thing that changed is inflation. If inflation continues rising in 2026, even people with "good jobs" will find themselves unable to survive on their salaries.
4. Unemployment and Underemployment Will Rise
As of 2025, Nigeria's unemployment rate officially stands at around 33 percent, but anyone who understands how these statistics work knows that the real number is much higher. When you factor in underemployment — people who have jobs but are not earning enough to meet basic needs — you're looking at over 50 percent of the Nigerian workforce struggling economically.
And 2026 is not going to improve this situation. In fact, it's likely to make it worse.
Why Companies Are Cutting Jobs
Many Nigerian businesses are operating at a loss or barely breaking even. The cost of doing business in Nigeria has skyrocketed — diesel for generators, increased salaries to match inflation (even though those increases never fully match inflation), higher costs for imported raw materials, insecurity affecting supply chains. Many businesses are being forced to make difficult decisions, and unfortunately, layoffs are often the first option.
In the past six months alone, several major Nigerian companies have announced layoffs or restructuring. Banks are automating more services and reducing staff. Manufacturing companies are shutting down production lines. Retail chains are closing branches. And this trend will likely accelerate in 2026 as economic pressures intensify.
The Youth Employment Crisis
For young Nigerians graduating from universities and polytechnics in 2026, the job market will be even more brutal than it is today. There are already too few jobs for too many graduates, and with companies cutting positions rather than creating new ones, the situation will become dire.
Many young Nigerians are responding by trying to "japa" (relocate abroad), but even that option is becoming harder as destination countries tighten their immigration policies. Others are turning to entrepreneurship, but starting a business in Nigeria's current economic climate requires capital, skills, and resilience that not everyone has.
Word of Encouragement: If you're a young person reading this and feeling discouraged, I want you to know something: difficult times also create opportunities. Yes, 2026 will be hard. But it will also force us to become more innovative, more resourceful, more strategic. The Nigerians who will thrive in 2026 are those who start preparing now. And I'm going to show you how to prepare.
5. Small Businesses Will Face Existential Threats
If you run a small business in Nigeria — a restaurant, a provision store, a fashion brand, a transport service, a salon — let me speak directly to you: 2026 is going to test you like never before. Not to scare you, but to prepare you.
Small businesses in Nigeria are already operating under immense pressure. Multiple taxation, epileptic power supply, high cost of logistics, insecurity, and unpredictable government policies. Many small business owners I know are surviving on hope and prayers more than actual profit.
The Triple Threat Coming in 2026
Small businesses will face three major threats simultaneously in 2026, and each one alone is dangerous enough. Together, they could wipe out thousands of businesses.
Threat #1: Reduced Consumer Spending
When people are struggling to buy food, they cut spending on everything else. That hair salon visit becomes a once-every-three-months affair instead of monthly. That restaurant meal becomes a rare treat instead of a weekend habit. That new outfit gets postponed indefinitely. Small businesses that depend on discretionary spending will see their revenues collapse.
I've already seen this happening. A friend who owns a small restaurant in Lekki told me her sales have dropped by almost 40 percent compared to 2023. People are not eating out anymore. They're cooking at home to save money. And if the economy gets worse in 2026, even more people will cut back.
Threat #2: Rising Operating Costs
Everything a small business needs to operate is becoming more expensive. Rent is going up. Generator fuel is going up. Employee salaries need to increase (even if just a little) to help workers cope with inflation. Raw materials and supplies are costing more. And unlike big corporations, small businesses don't have the financial cushion to absorb these increases.
Many small business owners are already working at a loss, hoping things will get better. But if costs continue rising in 2026 while revenues are falling, the mathematics simply won't work anymore. Businesses will have to close.
Threat #3: Intense Competition and Market Saturation
As more people lose their jobs in 2026, many will try to start small businesses as a survival strategy. This will flood the market with even more sellers competing for fewer customers with less money. The result? Aggressive price-cutting, razor-thin margins, and a race to the bottom where nobody wins except the customer (and even customers lose when quality drops).
Survival Strategy: If you're a small business owner, the key to surviving 2026 is not hoping that things will get better — it's adapting to the reality that things will get harder. You need to find ways to cut costs without cutting quality, diversify your revenue streams, and build customer loyalty that goes beyond price. We'll talk more about specific strategies later in this article.
How to Prepare for 2026: 7 Practical Steps
Now that we've talked about the challenges coming in 2026, let's focus on what you can actually do about it. Because complaining won't change anything, but preparation will help you survive and maybe even thrive.
1. Build an Emergency Fund (Even if It's Small)
I know what you're thinking: "Samson, I barely have money to eat, how can I save?" I understand. But even if it's just N5,000 per month, start putting something aside. The goal is not to save millions — the goal is to create a habit and a small cushion for emergencies.
By the time 2026 reaches its most difficult months (likely around June to September when food prices traditionally peak), you'll be grateful you have something set aside. Even N50,000 can make a huge difference when you're in a crisis.
2. Diversify Your Income Streams
If you're depending on one single source of income in 2026, you're taking a huge risk. What if you lose that job? What if that business collapses? What if that client stops paying? You need at least one backup income source.
This doesn't mean you need to work three jobs and never sleep. It means finding smart ways to earn additional income without burning yourself out. Learn a digital skill like graphic design, video editing, or social media management that you can do on the side. Start a small side hustle selling products online. Offer consulting services in your area of expertise.
I've written extensively about different ways Nigerians can earn money online from Nigeria, and I encourage you to explore those options. The internet has created opportunities that didn't exist 10 years ago, and Nigerians who take advantage of these opportunities will be better positioned to weather 2026.
3. Cut Unnecessary Expenses Now (Before You're Forced To)
Sit down and honestly review your monthly expenses. How much are you spending on things you don't really need? That expensive data plan when a cheaper one would work? Those subscriptions you barely use? That lifestyle you're maintaining to impress people who don't even care?
The earlier you adjust your lifestyle downward, the easier it will be. If you wait until 2026 forces you to make drastic cuts, it will be more painful and more stressful.
I'm not saying you should live like a monk. But there's a difference between enjoying life and living beyond your means in an economy that's getting worse every month.
4. Invest in Skills, Not Just Certificates
In 2026, having a university degree will not be enough. What will matter more is what you can actually do — what problems you can solve, what value you can create, what services you can provide.
If you have some money to invest in yourself, don't waste it on another expensive certificate that won't help you earn money. Instead, invest in practical skills that have immediate income potential. Learn digital marketing. Learn software development. Learn copywriting. Learn how to run Facebook and Instagram ads for businesses.
These are skills that businesses will need in 2026, and if you have them, you can earn money regardless of what's happening in the broader economy. I've seen many young Nigerians transform their financial situations by learning just one high-demand digital skill.
5. Build Relationships and Community
In hard times, the people around you become more valuable than money. Your network is your net worth, as the saying goes. The friend who knows about a job opportunity. The family member who can help with emergency housing. The colleague who can introduce you to a potential client.
Stop waiting for when you need help before you start building relationships. Reach out to people now. Stay in touch with old friends and classmates. Join professional groups and communities in your field. Offer to help others without expecting anything in return.
When 2026 gets tough (and it will), these relationships will be your safety net.
6. Protect Your Mental Health
This might sound strange in an article about economic survival, but hear me out: your mental health is the foundation of everything else. If you're depressed, anxious, or burnt out, you can't think clearly, you can't make good decisions, you can't spot opportunities, and you can't take action.
Nigeria's economic situation is genuinely stressful, and it's okay to admit that you're struggling mentally and emotionally. Talk to people you trust. Take breaks when you need them. Don't compare your struggles to other people's Instagram highlights. Find healthy ways to manage stress — exercise, prayer, meditation, hobbies, whatever works for you.
I've written about practical ways Nigerians can manage stress and anxiety, and these strategies will become even more important in 2026.
7. Stay Informed and Adaptable
Things are changing fast in Nigeria right now. Government policies change. Market conditions shift. New opportunities emerge. You need to stay informed about what's happening so you can adapt quickly.
Follow reliable news sources. Read economic analysis from credible experts. Join online communities where people share practical information and opportunities. And most importantly, be willing to change your plans when necessary.
The Nigerians who will survive and thrive in 2026 are not necessarily the smartest or the most educated — they're the most adaptable. They're the ones who can see what's coming and adjust accordingly.
A Word of Hope in the Midst of Hard Truth
I know this article has been heavy. I've painted a picture of 2026 that's honestly difficult to look at. But I want to end this section with something important: Nigerians are some of the most resilient people on earth.
We've survived military dictatorships, civil war, economic collapse, fuel scarcity, electricity blackouts, and every other challenge you can imagine. We're still here. We're still fighting. We're still building businesses, raising families, pursuing dreams, and refusing to give up.
Yes, 2026 will be hard. But it won't break us. It will test us, refine us, and ultimately make us stronger. The key is to face reality with clear eyes while maintaining hope in our hearts. Acknowledge the challenges without letting them paralyze you. Prepare for the worst while working toward the best.
And remember: hard times don't last forever. Nigeria has been through worse, and we've always found a way forward. We will find a way forward again.
🎯 Key Takeaways
- Fuel prices will continue rising as subsidy removal fully takes effect, potentially reaching N1,200 to N1,500 per liter by mid-2026
- Naira devaluation will worsen with projections suggesting N2,500 to $1 on official markets by end of 2026
- Inflation could hit 35-40 percent, significantly eroding purchasing power and making everyday items unaffordable for many families
- Unemployment will rise as businesses cut costs and reduce staff to survive economic pressures
- Small businesses face existential threats from reduced consumer spending, rising costs, and increased competition
- Preparation is key: build emergency funds, diversify income, cut unnecessary expenses, invest in skills, and protect mental health
- Adaptability matters more than credentials — those who can pivot quickly will survive and thrive despite economic challenges
What This Means for Different Groups of Nigerians
For Employees and Salary Earners
Your salary is losing value faster than it's increasing. Even if you get a 20 percent raise in 2026, if inflation is at 35 percent, you're actually earning less in real terms. Start looking for ways to earn extra income outside your main job. Consider freelancing, consulting, or starting a small side business. And most importantly, don't count on your employer's loyalty — have a backup plan.
For Students and Recent Graduates
The traditional path of "go to school, get a degree, find a good job" is not working like it used to. You need to be learning practical, income-generating skills even while you're still in school. Don't wait until after graduation to start thinking about how you'll make money. The graduates who will succeed in 2026 are those who already have side hustles and real-world skills before they even collect their certificates.
For Business Owners and Entrepreneurs
You're going to need to get creative to survive 2026. Look for ways to reduce costs without reducing quality. Consider partnering with other businesses to share expenses. Explore online sales channels if you haven't already. Build customer loyalty through excellent service, not just low prices. And be prepared to pivot your business model if necessary — flexibility will be your greatest asset.
For Parents and Families
You're carrying the heaviest burden because you're not just worried about yourself — you're worried about your children, your spouse, your extended family who depend on you. The pressure is real, and I don't want to minimize it. Focus on the essentials: food, shelter, education, health. Everything else can wait. Teach your children about money management early. Show them how to be resourceful and resilient. And don't feel guilty if you can't provide luxuries — teaching them to thrive in hard times is a more valuable gift than any toy or gadget.
Final Thoughts: Hope is Not a Strategy, But Neither is Despair
Some people will read this article and say I'm being too negative, too pessimistic, too focused on doom and gloom. Maybe they're right. Maybe 2026 won't be as bad as I'm projecting. Maybe the government will implement effective policies that turn things around. Maybe oil prices will skyrocket and boost government revenues. Maybe a miracle will happen.
I genuinely hope I'm wrong about 2026. I would love nothing more than to write an article in December 2026 saying, "Remember when I said 2026 would be harder than 2025? I was completely wrong, and I'm so glad I was wrong."
But hoping I'm wrong is not a strategy. The wise approach is to prepare for the worst while hoping for the best. If 2026 turns out better than expected, wonderful — you'll be in an even stronger position than you anticipated. But if it turns out as difficult as I'm projecting (or worse), at least you won't be caught off guard.
At the end of the day, we can't control what the government does. We can't control global oil prices. We can't control inflation or exchange rates or fuel costs. But we can control how we prepare, how we respond, and how we adapt.
That's where our power lies. And that's enough.
Stay Connected for More Survival Strategies
I'll be sharing more practical guides on how to survive and thrive in Nigeria's challenging economy. Don't miss out on strategies that could make the difference for your family.
Subscribe to Our NewsletterFrequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
How can I protect my savings from inflation in 2026?
Consider diversifying your savings into multiple assets. While keeping some money in naira for daily expenses, explore options like dollar-denominated investments if accessible, invest in skills that generate income, or put money into assets that historically hold value during inflation like precious metals or real estate if you have sufficient capital. For average earners, focus on income diversification rather than just savings preservation.
Should I take a loan to start a business before 2026 gets harder?
Be extremely cautious about taking loans in this economic climate. High interest rates and economic uncertainty make business loans very risky right now. If possible, start small with your own savings or bootstrap your business. Only consider loans if you have a proven business model with existing customers and predictable cash flow. Many businesses that take loans during economic downturns end up failing and leaving owners in crippling debt.
What are the best side hustles for Nigerians in 2026?
Digital skills remain the most reliable path to additional income. Consider freelance writing, graphic design, social media management, video editing, or virtual assistance. These can be done from home with minimal startup costs. Other viable options include reselling products online, offering tutoring services, or providing specialized consulting in your area of expertise. The key is to choose something that matches your skills and has genuine market demand.
Is it better to save in naira or dollars?
Ideally, have both. Keep enough naira for your daily expenses and immediate needs since you'll need local currency for transactions. But if you can legally access dollars through domiciliary accounts or other legitimate means, holding some savings in dollars can protect you from naira devaluation. However, ensure any forex transactions are legal and properly documented to avoid issues with financial authorities.
How can I help my parents or family members prepare for 2026?
Start honest conversations about the economic situation now rather than waiting for crisis. Help them understand the challenges coming and work together on a family preparation plan. This might include pooling resources, sharing expenses, cutting unnecessary costs collectively, or exploring ways different family members can contribute additional income. Also, ensure older family members have access to basic healthcare and don't feel pressured to maintain expensive lifestyles for appearance sake.
Should I try to relocate abroad or stay and build in Nigeria?
This is a deeply personal decision that depends on your specific circumstances, skills, resources, and family situation. Relocating abroad has its own challenges including high costs, immigration difficulties, racism, and separation from family. Building in Nigeria during hard times also has challenges but offers the advantage of being close to family and potentially positioning yourself to benefit when things eventually improve. Consider both options carefully, do thorough research, and make a decision based on your unique situation rather than following trends.
© 2025 Daily Reality NG — Empowering Everyday Nigerians | All posts are independently written and fact-checked by Samson Ese based on real experience and verified sources.
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